Nov 14, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) grabs a rebound against the Phoenix Suns in the first half at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY SportsThe Spurs face the Heat in South Beach on Saturday San Antonio has lost eight in a row on the road Read on for the odds, analysis, and Spurs vs Heat prediction
The lowly San Antonio Spurs (7-18, 3-8 road) head down to Florida on Saturday to face the Miami Heat (12-14, 9-5 home) in a cross-conference matchup. The tip-off is scheduled for 5pm ET at FTX Arena. It’s the first meeting of the year between the two teams. Find the Spurs vs Heat prediction below.
The Spurs are just 1-9 in their last 10 games but did grab a victory Thursday, beating the Houston Rockets. That ended an 11-game losing skid. Miami also got back on track, taking down the Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers a night ago.
Odds as of December 9th at FanDuel.
The Heat head into this matchup as a massive 11.5-point favorite with moneyline odds of -700. That’s a whopping implied win probability of 87.50%. The Spurs come back at +490.
Miami has won four consecutive contests against San Antonio by an average of — you guessed it — 11.5 points.
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San Antonio is in full rebuild mode and that’s reflected by its poor record. They’ve won just seven games and rank towards the bottom of the Association in both offensive and defensive rating. Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell have been really solid for the Spurs though, both averaging just over 20 PPG.
Johnson showed out in Thursday’s victory as well, erupting for a team-high 32 points on 14-for-21 shooting from the field. Tre Jones also had 26, joining five others who finished in double-figures. Gregg Popovich’s squad killed the Rockets in transition, scoring 21 fast-break points. That made a huge difference in the outcome.
The Spurs could be depleted on Saturday, however. Keita Bates-Diop, Jakob Poeltl, Jeremy Sochan, and Blake Wesley are all out. Vassell is also questionable due to knee soreness. He missed the Houston contest because of the same ailment.
The Heat is certainly not living up to expectations at 12-14. Injuries have definitely played their part, but it’s just downright clear Miami isn’t performing at a high level by any means.
They’re 28th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. Despite usually being a group that shoots the ball well, Erik Spoelstra’s team is 22nd in three-point percentage and 25th in field goal percentage. Not ideal.
With that being said, Thursday was a step in the right direction, beating the Clippers by five. Bam Adebayo led the charge with 31 points and 10 rebounds, while Jimmy Butler balled out for 26 and eight dimes. Miami also shot 38% from deep and 51% from the field. This is the Heat we’re used to seeing.
As for Saturday’s injury report, it’s looking rather clean. The likes of Butler, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Victor Oladipo are all probable. Gabe Vincent is the only confirmed absence. He hasn’t played since Monday.
Both teams are well under .500 ATS. The spread is large and the Heat have only beaten two opponents by more than 11.5 points this season. Miami should definitely win, but I think it’ll be closer.
Pick: Spurs +11.5 (-110)