Detroit enters this game with some of the league's best offensive numbers, but can't keep the ball out of its end zone. That spells bad news for the Leos when they welcome Tua and Co. to town, with our NFL betting picks expecting Tyreek to have a big game.
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The Detroit Lions have the worst record in the NFL, but fresh off their bye week they welcome the Miami Dolphins to Ford Field. The Dolphins are 4-3 and trail both the Bills and the Jets in the AFC East and need to win games like this if they’re serious about the playoffs.
With NFL odds placing it as an underdog, will Detroit be able to pull off a huge victory or will Tua Tagovailoa lead his team to a win? Don’t miss our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions to find out.
Sunday sees the Dolphins traveling to Detroit to face a Lions team who sit on a 1-5 record despite playing some brilliant football throughout the season. They’re the highest-scoring team in their division but they’ve had defensive woes with only the Saints in the entire NFL allowing more points than them.
Now they have to deal with a seemingly healthy Tua Tagovailoa and his explosive receiver corps of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Before the concussion, Tagovailoa looked like he was making a breakthrough.
In Week 1 he threw for 270 yards and then 469 a week later before that fateful injury against the Bills — and the subsequent second concussion against the Bengals. Last week he finally returned and passed for 261 yards. He’s a hugely efficient passer and he will help elevate his wideouts.
That spells bad news for any team playing against Miami and any cornerback tasked with taking care of Tyreek Hill. Despite spending part of this season catching passes from a backup, he’s on pace for 138 catches and 1,877 receiving yards, which would eclipse even his best season with the Chiefs.
Hill is deadly with the ball in his hands and he’s a yards-after-catch master, using that electric speed and change of direction to claw extra yardage. His receiving yards line for Sunday’s game against the Lions sits at 84.5 yards. It’s a high figure and it’s one that he’s only topped in four of his seven games this year, but you should be confident that he’ll beat that number this week barring an injury.
It's not exactly rocket science to tell you that he’s a great deep threat but the stats back it up with Hill hauling in 24 catches of 10+ yard throws. He came into this week tops in both receptions (57) and receiving yards (773)
The Lions have given up an average of 169 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, which puts them 24th in the league. They have the worst defense in the NFL when you look at weighted defensive DVOA and against a passer with the precision of Tua Tagovailoa, they should expect a very hard day. Just look at his NFL player props and hammer the Over on his receiving total, it makes too much sense.
My best bet: Tyreek Hill Over 84.5 receiving yards (-110)
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We’ve spoken about the firepower on the Fins' offense, as well as the weaknesses on the Lions' defense — both of which should ensure that the visiting team put up a lot of points — but we also have to acknowledge how good Detroit's offense has been.
Amon-Ra St Brown was one of the league’s leading wideouts until an injury but he’s playing on Sunday, as will D’Andre Swift, who is far more elusive and quick than the Lions' backup Jamaal Williams. With those two back in the lineup we can expect them to score points too.
Only eight teams have put up more points on average than Detroit and the majority of those teams have winning records..
The points total line has crept up from 50 points upon opening to 51.5 but I’d still lean towards backing the Over here.
We haven’t seen much line movement in this game so far. The Lions opened as 3-point underdogs but that’s risen to 3.5-points as the week has progressed. This Dolphins' offense is just simply overpowered when Tagovailoa is under center.
Raheem Mostert is a solid running back but the WR tandem of Hill and Waddle are just too quick and too shifty for most defenses to be able to cover effectively and one always seems to find a wrinkle and get loose.
Miami has won all the games in which Tagovailoa has played most of the game and I’d expect it to win and cover here too. It is 8-3 against the spread in its past eleven games following a win and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on FieldTurf. It’s also worth noting that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between the teams.
Historically this isn’t a great time of year for the Dolphins either with the team 0-4 ATS in their past four in October and 0-9 ATS in their past nine Week 8 games.
The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in October. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Lions.
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