Champions League permutations: Who can go through and get knocked out?
The UEFA Champions League group stage is heading towards its conclusion, with only two matches left to play.
Some groups are tighter than others and although some teams have already qualified or been knocked out, there’s still plenty still to play for as we progress towards knowing the winners and losers of each group.
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As a reminder, the group winners will be seeded for the last-16 draw, with the runners-up qualifying unseeded and third-place sides dropping down into the Europa League knockout stages.
And, if teams are level on points, their head-to-head records, not goal difference, are what separates them.
Got that? Great. The Athletic guides you through what can happen as we approach matchweek five.
Champions League permutations at a glance
Already through to round of 16: Bayern Munich, Club Bruges, Manchester City, Napoli, Real Madrid
Could see progress to knockout round on matchday 5: Benfica, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund, Inter, RB Leipzig, Liverpool, Marseille, PSG, Porto, Salzburg, Sporting, Tottenham
Champions League permutations by group
Group A
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Napoli
4
4
0
0
13
12
Liverpool
4
3
0
1
6
9
Ajax
4
1
0
3
-4
3
Rangers
4
0
0
4
-15
0
Next fixtures: Napoli vs Rangers, Ajax vs Liverpool
Napoli: Through. Confirmed as group winners if they win and Liverpool don’t — or if they draw and Liverpool lose
Liverpool: Through if avoid defeat
Ajax: Out if fail to win. Will book Europa League spot if they draw and Rangers lose
Rangers: Out and need Ajax to slip up to have chance of reaching Europa League
Group B
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Club Bruges
4
3
1
0
7
10
Porto
4
2
0
2
0
6
Atletico
4
1
1
2
-3
4
Bayer Leverkusen
4
1
0
3
-4
3
Next fixtures: Club Bruges vs Porto, Atletico vs Bayer Leverkusen
Club Bruges: Through and will win group if they avoid defeat
Porto: Through if win and Atletico fail to win
Atletico: Out if fail to win and Porto fail to win, but can still reach Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen: Out if fail to win and Porto win. If lose, confirmed to finish bottom
Group C
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Bayern Munich
4
4
0
0
11
12
Inter
4
2
1
1
1
7
Barcelona
4
1
1
2
1
4
Viktoria Plzen
4
0
0
4
-13
0
Next fixtures: Inter vs Viktoria Plzen, Barcelona vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich: Through to round of 16 and will be confirmed as group winners if they win, or if Inter don’t
Inter: Through if match or better Barcelona’s result
Barcelona: Out if they lose, if Inter win, or if both games are draws. If one of latter two permutations ensue, Barcelona’s Europa League place will be confirmed
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Viktoria Plzen: Out but can still reach Europa League. Will finish bottom if they lose or if Barcelona win
Group D
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Tottenham
4
2
1
1
1
7
Marseille
4
2
0
2
2
6
Sporting Lisbon
4
2
0
2
0
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
1
1
2
-3
4
Next fixtures: Tottenham vs Sporting Lisbon, Eintracht Frankfurt vs Marseille
Tottenham: Through if win and confirmed as group winners if they win and Marseille lose
Marseille: Through if win and Sporting lose as they hold head-to-head record over Sporting
Sporting Lisbon: Through if they win and the other game is drawn — but out if lose and Marseille win
Eintracht Frankfurt: Out if lose and confirmed in fourth place if they lose and Sporting win
Real Madrid have qualified for the knockout stages (Photo: Getty Images)
Group E
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Chelsea
4
2
1
1
4
7
Salzburg
4
1
3
0
1
6
AC Milan
4
1
1
2
-3
4
Dinamo Zagreb
4
1
1
2
-2
4
Next fixtures: Red Bull Salzburg vs Chelsea, Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan
Chelsea: Through if win, or if they draw and AC Milan win. Confirmed as group winners if they win and Dinamo Zagreb don’t
Salzburg: Through if win and AC Milan don’t
AC Milan: Out if lose and Salzburg win
Dinamo Zagreb: Out if lose and Chelsea avoid defeat
Group F
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Real Madrid
4
3
1
0
6
10
RB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
-1
6
Shakhtar
4
1
2
1
2
5
Celtic
4
0
1
3
-7
1
Next fixtures: Celtic vs Shakhtar, RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid: Through and will win group if avoid defeat
RB Leipzig: Through if win and Shakthar lose
Shakhtar: Out if lose and RB Leipzig win
Celtic: Out but will remain in contention for Europa League place with a win
Group G
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
Man City
4
3
1
0
10
10
Dortmund
4
2
1
1
5
7
Sevilla
4
0
2
2
-7
2
FC Copenhagen
4
0
2
2
-8
2
Next fixtures: Sevilla vs FC Copenhagen, Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City
Manchester City: Through and will seal first place if they avoid defeat
Dortmund: Through if draw, or Sevilla and Copenhagen draw
Sevilla: Out if Dortmund avoid defeat, or fail to beat Copenhagen. Will seal third place if they win and Dortmund avoid defeat
FC Copenhagen: Out if fail to win and Dortmund win
Group H
Played
W
D
L
GD
Pts
PSG
4
2
2
0
3
8
Benfica
4
2
2
0
3
8
Juventus
4
1
0
3
-2
3
Maccabi Haifa
4
1
0
3
-4
3
Next fixtures: PSG vs Maccabi Haifa, Benfica vs Juventus
PSG: Through if win, or draw and Juventus fail to win
Benfica: Through if win, or draw and Maccabi Haifa fail to win
Juventus: Out if fail to win
Maccabi Haifa: Out if fail to win
When is the Champions League round of 16 draw?
The draw for the first knockout stage in this season’s competition takes place at 11am (BST) on Monday, November 7.
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The draw will feature the eight group winners and eight runners-up.
Seeded group winners will play the return fixtures of the two-legged ties at home.
No team can play a club from their group, or any side from their domestic league at this stage.
Champions League key dates
Round of 16 draw: November 7 Round of 16: February 14/15/21/22 & March 7/8/14/15, 2023 Quarter-final and semi-final draw: March 17, 2023 Quarter-finals: April 11/12 & 18/19, 2023 Semi-finals: May 9/10 & 16/17, 2023 Final: June 10, 2023 (Istanbul)(Photos: Getty Images)